Enough moisture is creeping in from the south and east to keep a daily crop of scattered showers to continue through Thursday.  Mountain areas will be most favored to pick up rain during this period with the Rio Grande Valley seeing a few storms as well.  The best chance for rain will come this holiday weekend.  A moist southerly flow will combine with Hurricane Jimena to increase out chance at rain Saturday through Monday.  While this by no means is a sure thing if it does come to pass we could be looking at a very wet weekend.  Time will tell and we’ll stay on it for you.

Fewer showers and storms are expected across the Land of Enchantment as we kick off the new work week.  High pressure will move overhead, allowing for warmer temperatures and only a few spotty pm showers, mostly over the mountains.  These showers will be the direct result of recycling some of the moist air that will remain trapped under the high pressure ridge.

Later in the week, it appears that the high will break down as southwest flow aloft starts to again transport moist air into the region.  This monsoon type flow will combine with a back door front at the surface to set the stage for another round of wet weather across New Mexico.  Rain chances will start to increase across the west by Thursday and then spread east as we roll into the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms will once again favor the northeast portion of New Mexico come Sunday afternoon.  Elsewhere, a few afternoon clouds will likely develop.  However,  the presence of high pressure aloft will limit the ability of these clouds to produce rainfall.

This same ridge of high pressure will continue to shift east  as the new work week begins.  With the high pressure located overhead, we can expect fewer showers and storms statewide.  The exception will be over the higher terrain where a little recycling of moist air will result in a few spot showers and storms during the heat of the afternoon.

High pressure will continue to set up to our west through the weekend.  This will allow for another cold front to push northeast to southwest through the state.  Storms will expand across the northeast during the day on Saturday.  These storms could well last into the morning hours on Sunday before a new round of storms fire up on Sunday afternoon.  The best chance for rain will be Sunday here in the Rio Grande valley.  Looking farther out, the monsoon flow could set up late next week.  Highs will top out in the high 80’s with lows in the mid 60’s.

Charles Lemons

High pressure currently anchored to our west will continue to allow the occasional cold front into the northeastern part of the state.  The fronts will then sweep through central sections.  These fronts will bring more moisture in behind them boosting our chance for showers with each passing front.  The next front will head our way on Sunday.  This will allow for an increased chance of a shower Sunday and Monday.  By late next week the monsoon flow could set back up and increase our chance of rain.

High pressure is redeveloping west of New Mexico.  This is shutting off the monsoon flow that has been over the state for the last few days.  The shift in the high will reduce storms across the area but it will not eliminate them all together.  A series of cold fronts will push ne to sw through the state late tonight into tomorrow.  Another couple fronts will push in over the weekend.  These fronts will serve to add some moisture to the state making scattered showers a possibility through the weekend.

One more day of monsoon rain action is expected across parts of New Mexico before a pattern shift sets in.  The moist plume of moist air will continue to reside over western and northern parts of the state through  Tuesday evening.  As a result more rain is expected to fall in these areas.  Meanwhile, the southeast will continue to be warm and dry underneath the high pressure ridge.

This monsoon push will shut down quickly Wednesday as high pressure shifts west and takes up residence across the western part of New Mexico.  This will open the door to a few south bound cool fronts as they head for eastern New Mexico late week and over the weekend.  These fronts will bring additional moist air to the east and provide needed rain to parts of the state that missed out on the monsoon rains of the past few days.