Our rain and storm chance won’t be as widespread as previously expected today. Isolated storms possible this afternoon with the more favorable location for storms being the NE and Eastern Plains. Temperatures will be warm today and the next few days while the chance for isolated showers and storms sticks around. Today, partly cloudy, isol’d storms late, highs near 87°. Tonight, mostly cloudy, isol’d storms, lows near 65°.
We had a good crop of storms across the western portion of the state today. They showed some promise as they moved toward the metro area but really fizzled out just west of the city. On Wednesday our forecast changes a little bit over what we had on the forecast models yesterday. Now it looks like more dry air will be brought into western and central sections. Here in the metro we’re less likely to see a storm but the possibility of storms will be higher to our east.
Heading into late in the work week it looks like will be on and off with our storm crop. This is a far cry from what we were hoping for as moisture looked like to be more widespread. But instead scattered storms are more likely versus a big block of moisture were huge parts of the state get wet. Such is the monsoon flow.
We are looking at an interesting week ahead as far as storms go. Models are a little bit at odds with how much rain we will receive. One thing is for sure, will be looking at a better storm crop by midweek than we’ve seen so far today to start the week. The western portion of the state will see most of the action through Wednesday. Then the chance of storms will begin to shift a bit to the east by Thursday into Friday.
Here in the Albuquerque metro area if there are a couple of bull’s-eye days to watch for its Wednesday and Thursday. That’s when it looks like the best moisture will be over the city and we will have a chance for scattered storms. Take a look at the map below. It shows how much one model projects we will receive across the state. And as you can tell as we usually see this time of year some areas get hit hard others get nothing.
Today will be quieter across much of the state. High pressure sitting overhead will limit storm development to mainly the higher terrain. While a spot storm will be possible elsewhere, warm temperatures will be the bigger story. Highs will reach the low 90s in Albuquerque and the upper 90s across much of the east.
As the high drifts east on Tuesday, southerly moisture will return to the west. That moisture will continue to spread across the state through midweek as the high continues to move into Texas. In addition, there are two tropical systems sitting in the eastern Pacific. It’s possible additional moisture could be drawn up from these storms for the middle and latter part of the workweek.
High-pressure will shift back to our west over the next couple of days. This will reduce the overall moisture supply available for thunderstorms.
So instead of scattered or widespread storms we will end up with more isolated storms. The areas most likely to get wet are the southwest and northeast. While we can grab a spot storm in the metro it’s not likely were going to see anything too widespread.
Temps will top out in the low 90s over the next 4 to 5 days. This is pretty much average for this time year.