Weather

Remnants of Simon Move Through

October 8th, 2014 at 5:00 pm by under Weather

The remnants of Simon will arrive in New Mexico through the evening and overnight. Western New Mexico will see showers first tonight, then showers expand into central and northern New Mexico early Thursday. Rain in the Albuquerque metro area will be scattered, so the radar will have to be watched closely for Thursday morning’s balloon launch. It is possible we could get a large enough window for a successful launch.

Friday morning will be a better looking day for a balloon launch. Most of the showers will shift into northern and northeastern New Mexico as Simon departs. However, a back door cold front will also be entering the northeast. This will help fuel a decent crop of storms across the northeast. As the front pushes through Albuquerque Friday night, winds will be increasing. Saturday morning’s balloon launch will depend on how quickly the winds die down.

Another storm will dive into the northern part of the state Sunday and Monday. However, it should move in late enough in the day to allow for a successful final day of Balloon Fiesta!

Rain will be a concern for the balloon launch Thursday, then watching winds Saturday.

Rain will be a concern for the balloon launch Thursday, then watching winds Saturday.


Here Comes Simon

October 7th, 2014 at 10:12 pm by under Weather

The remnants of what was once hurricane Simon continue to close in on New Mexico. The remnants will push their way into Arizona on Wednesday and into western New Mexico was scattered showers late in the day tomorrow. We’re expecting Simon or what’s left of it anyway to slide its way across the state on Thursday into Friday.  This will spread scattered showers across central and eastern sections as well.

By Friday will not only have the tropical system passing through but will also have a cold front heading into the north eastern portion of the state. This will enhance storms across the slopes of the northern mountains and possibly lead beneficial rain. The big question is what happens during Balloon Fiesta?  At this point it looks like most precipitation will be at the scattered variety so we will have the chance to fit in mass ascension and glow events in between some scattered showers.

This does not look like a soaking rain event for the Albuquerque metro area. We will need to continue to watch this though. Below is the five-day precipitation forecast for the storm and the rain amounts are relatively modest.
GFS


Simon Says What?

October 6th, 2014 at 10:01 pm by under Weather

Leave it to Balloon Fiesta week to usher in some of our most exciting weather of the fall so far. Will get off to a slow start on Tuesday with increasing clouds especially across the western portion of the state then by Wednesday we will start seeing increasing chances of rain across western sections as the remnants of what was once hurricane Simon head toward New Mexico.

Increasing showers will continue to spread in the central sections by Thursday and into Friday. There’s a good chance that remnant moisture as well as a back door cold front could interact to mean more rain across the Northeast as well. If this wasn’t Balloon Fiesta week we would be looking at a good chance of widespread  beneficial rain. But given that we need  dry conditions for ballooning it could be a difficult go later this week. Stay tuned.  We leave you with the five-day precipitation outlook across New Mexico. You can see western and northern section’s look like they have the best chance at significant rain.

QPF


Watching for Rain from “Simon”….

October 5th, 2014 at 5:15 pm by under Weather
Model #1 Rain Estimates through Friday Morning

Model #1 Rain Estimates through Friday Morning

 

Hurricane Simon has lost some of it’s strength as of Sunday night.  It has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane.   Despite losing its strength, Simon looks to be a major player in New Mexico’s weather this upcoming week.

An area of high pressure will continue to control our weather for the first half of the week.   But, come Wednesday into Thursday moisture will start entering the state from Simon.  This will spark scattered storms beginning in the southwest and in western NM on Wednesday.   It looks like central and eastern New Mexico will see rain chances go up on Thursday and they’ll continue into Friday.

In addition to the moisture from Simon, we will watch a cold front roll into northeastern New Mexico by the end of the week.   This front will trigger even more storms around the northern mountains, along the central mountain chain, and into eastern New Mexico.

There is some disagreement between the models on where a bulk of the rain will fall.   Model #1 (shown above) keeps the heavier rain farther west and north.   While model #2 (shown below) favors central, and eastern New Mexico.   This is still several days out, so there will be some day-to-day changes in the rain forecast.   Either way it sure does look like parts of the state will see more rain by the middle of the week.   Stay with KRQE for more weather updates!

 

Model #2 Rain Estimates through Friday Morning

Model #2 Rain Estimates through Friday Morning


Great Start for Balloon Fiesta!

October 3rd, 2014 at 9:48 pm by under Weather

The weather couldn’t be more perfect as Balloon Fiesta kicks off Saturday morning! It will be cool with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s, but winds will be light and expect to see plenty of sunshine! Afternoon highs will warm to the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday will be a bit tricky for balloons, especially the special shapes. As a weak weather disturbance works through the state, winds will elevate a bit. Expect near to just above 10 mph. While that may not be much by New Mexico’s standards, it doesn’t take much wind for balloonists to run into problems.

The winds come back down Monday and the start of the work week will be mainly quiet. Toward the middle and latter part of the weak, the remnants of Hurricane Simon will work through. This will give New Mexico a better chance at showers late Wednesday through early Friday.

Balloon Fiesta Forecast

Saturday looks great for Balloon Fiesta. However, winds could be a concern Sunday.