A second storm system is going to pass through New Mexico on Sunday. That means more chances for scattered storms and some high elevation snow showers. Folks in central and western New Mexico likely will stay dry again and have to deal with blowing dust from strong, gusty winds. Winds look to be the strongest around the Four Corners while showers will be confined to the north and along the central mountain chain and to the east.
A couple of disturbances are going to bring the chance for some scattered storms and mountain snow this weekend. Neither of these systems have a ton of moisture to work with so we are going to have to watch out for dry lightning strikes in central and western New Mexico.
The farther north and east you get, the better shot you have of actually picking up rain. Snow will be confined to areas above 8,000 ft in the Northern Mountains, but it won’t be a lot of snow. A couple of inches are possible.
A broad and slow moving trough will slide through the southwest this weekend. This trough will allow a series of smaller weather disturbances to move through the state this weekend. The first will impact northern areas later on in the day Saturday. This system will spread snow above 8,000′ in the Sangre de Cristo mtns. As far as the metro area goes, we could pick up a storm or two in the afternoon with partly cloudy skies.
By Sunday through itself will have moved over the state and this will allow a series of disturbances to kick over eastern NM. That will allow for the NE and the east slopes of the north to pick up some showers. We could even see some showers linger into Monday before things clear out.
Temps will stay in check thanks to the trough passing through winds will bump up to the breezy category as well. Highs will top out in the low 60′s through Monday with wind gusts to 40 mph by Sunday. Here is a look at what the European model expects to fall precip wise through Monday. Trending up!
After a cold start this morning, afternoon highs will end up a little warmer than yesterday. Despite the warm up, afternoon highs will still run about 5° – 10° below average for this time of year. More sunshine and less wind will also make today feel warmer than yesterday.
Over the weekend, a weak storm with limited moisture will cross the state. Widely scattered showers will be possible across much of the state, but the north and east will be favored for the most rainfall. Another inch or two of high elevation snowfall will also be possible over the Northern Mountains. Also expect more wind over the weekend as well.
A ridge of high pressure is still on track to set up over the state early next week. This will finally allow temperatures to recover and eventually warm to above average by Tuesday. Temps continue to warm through Wednesday and Thursday. With the ridge in place, there will also be plenty of sunshine and light winds.
Another storm will move in late next week. Models are in a bit of disagreement of when the storm arrives. One has it moving in Friday while another has it holding off until late Saturday or Sunday. When this storm arrives, another round of showers for at least northern New Mexico looks likely.
Cold air in place behind our latest storm will lead to a very cold start to the day on Friday. Lows Friday morning will be at or below freezing across most of northern and central NM. Here in the metro we will bottom out in the high 20′s in the valley and low 30′s in the heights. You might want to cover or take in any sensitive plants.
Friday afternoon will warm a bit over what we had temp wise on Thursday with highs in the low 60′s. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule as we are between storm systems. By Saturday winds will ramp up once again as another trough moves into the southwest. Showers will break out over northern sections late Saturday and Sunday. Showers will then spread east Sunday as well. This will not a huge storm but it should pack moisture over a wider area than this last system.
Scattered showers will be possible across eastern NM into early Monday. In fact, models are now picking up on a little more precip over the NE. Here is a look at the accumulated precipitation product from the ECMWF.