After another day of VERY heavy rain in the SW and SE yesterday, we will finally start to get a break. Today will still hold a small chance for scattered light showers for the southern half of the state but no heavy rain is expected. Near the metro area we’ll stay dry and comfortable. Partly cloudy skies with highs near 83 degrees. Over the next few days we’ll see more dry weather and sunny conditions. It will be a great rest of the week.
A storm system passing to our north continued to draw moisture up across the state. The mixture of that moisture along with the heat of the day produced a pretty good crop of thunderstorms today. We had heavy rain for a while in Valencia County and in Socorro County as well. There was even flooding in Silver City.
Tomorrow will represent a welcome drying trend across a good portion of New Mexico. Even though it hasn’t been that wet in the Albuquerque area we will dry out as well. Look for showers to be mainly focused over mountain areas of the state. High-pressure will continue to develop Wednesday and Thursday walking out widespread storms.
It gets interesting again over the weekend. A West Coast trough will push toward New Mexico. This trough could well pack more showers and yes even the possibility of some high mountain snow over southwestern Colorado. Stay tuned it could get interesting and start to feel a bit more like fall by Sunday.
Widely scattered showers and storms are likely again today. Much of the state will be impacted by these spotty showers and storms. Some locations, that have already seen very heavy rain and have very saturated ground, will have issues with flooding and flash flooding. We’re continuing to watch the Pecos river in Eddy county, as it has already risen above flood stage in many locations. Tonight, drier skies will start to move into parts of northern NM. Unfortunately, some spot storms will again be possible for southern locations tomorrow, but by Wednesday dry and sunny skies will return.
Monday will be very similar to Sunday with more scattered showers and storms across the state. Unfortunately, the southeast is expected to receive even more rainfall on top of what has already fallen. Official reports for Whites City are close to 6″ since Thursday, and some remote areas of Eddy County could be even higher.
The good news is that a drying trend will set up Tuesday into Wednesday. As things dry out, temperatures will warm to above average for this time of year. While spot storms will still be possible across the state, most areas will remain dry through the end of the work week.
Long range models disagree on the setup for next weekend. Both models show a storm system passing to the north. However, one model has it closer to New Mexico. Regardless of track, both models continue showing a shift away from the monsoon setup to storm systems diving closer to the state.
After a break Saturday, rain returns to New Mexico on Sunday. The good news is that we are not expecting widespread persistent rainfall. The bad news is that any scattered storms that do develop could dump quick bursts of heavy rainfall. Flash flooding will be possible for those areas already saturated from the remnants of Odile.
The moisture Sunday will be due to the monsoon flow, assisted by a storm passing to our northwest. Showers will continue across the south and east Sunday, but drier air will work into the northwest corner of the state as the storm system passes north.
The weather goes quiet for the middle and latter part of the work week with above average temperatures.