Mark Ronchetti

Changes Ahead…

April 11th, 2014 at 9:56 pm by under Weather

There has been a significant change in the forecast leading to more intrigue this weekend.  Yesterday’s model runs showed a one-two storm punch coming through this weekend.  The first and weaker system moves in Saturday with isolated showers.  The second system scrapes the NE with a cold front as well.  This system looked better than the first but hardly a big timer.

Now the models sing a bit of a different tune.  Storm #1 still looks week and will be mainly a wind maker on Saturday.  But Sunday’s storm (#2) drops farther into the state leading to a better chance of rain in the metro up through the NE.  The mountains will get a better shot at snow as well.

Look for winds to ramp up in the metro late Sunday as a cold front squeezes through the east mountains.  Then the low will kick through enhancing the chance of showers Sunday night into Monday.  Heavy snow will develop over the northern mountains especially the east slopes during this same time.  Snow will continue into Monday afternoon before tapering off.

One caveat for the metro will be the east winds.  They will crank up about the time the precip comes in.  An east wind precipitation shadow is possible.  Stay tuned.  Here is the latest model data on how much liquid we could get by Tuesday.

Euro


Warm With Less Wind…

April 10th, 2014 at 5:47 pm by under Weather

A weak weather disturbance will increase clouds across NM on Friday but no precipitation is expected.  While there will be plenty of high clouds temps will remain warm and winds will be light.  Overall, Friday will be a very nice day.  However, changes roll in on Saturday.  A weak storm currently over the Pacific will slide through the southwest.  It will touch off isolated showers and some high mountain snow showers.

By Sunday a strong cold front will plow NE to SW across the state.  Rain showers and snow will favor the NE and northern mtns during the day Sunday.  The front will squeeze through the Tijeras canyon into the Albuquerque metro area late Sunday.  East winds will crank up in a big way and temps will crated 20°+ by Monday.

On another note, the latest El Nino report is out from the CPC.  Here is a link to the report.  The take away is the likelihood of El Nino is increasing.  Not only that but if we do see an El Nino it is trending stronger.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

 


Warm For Now…

April 9th, 2014 at 10:05 pm by under Weather

Temps will continue to be well above average through the end of the work week.  The high today in the metro was 81° and we could well hit 80° again tomorrow.  The only area that will cool down and only slightly will be the NE as a weak front tries to nudge in.  Friday looks similar temp wise but we should see more clouds.

The action gets more interesting over the weekend.  A storm system will head in from the Pacific.  The track on this storm looks good and the northern part of the state will have a chance for rain and snow.  However, this system will be a little moisture starved so widespread precipitation is not likely.  The storm will have some help.  A cold front heading into the NE will enhance snow and rain chances.  Look for the east slopes of the northern mountains and NE to have the best chance to get wet or white.  Check out what the GFS model thinks will happen Sunday.

GFS


Warm & Dry…

April 8th, 2014 at 9:57 pm by under Weather

Temperatures will continue to rise through midweek.  We will top out around 80° in the Albuquerque metro area on Wednesday and beyond until the end of the work week.  Clouds will be hard to come by as well with most areas enjoying mostly sunny skies.

The only cool down this week could be headed to the NE with a weak cold front.  This front will edge into the NE on Thursday and possibly touch off a few storms.  However, the front doesn’t look like a major player statewide.

The real action heats up over the weekend with a one…two storm punch headed our way.  The track on these systems looks good but the moisture looks limited.  That lack of juice means a chance for isolated showers but few areas are likely to see meaningful rain.  The area to watch is again the NE.  The storm combined with a back door cold front could produce some showers and storms.  Here is what the models are painting for precip late Sunday.

GFS


Warmer Temps Ahead…

April 7th, 2014 at 8:51 pm by under Weather

Today’s highs were well below average across most areas of the state.  This will be changing in a big way starting tomorrow.  Temps will rise rapidly over the next three days.  Here in the metro area we topped out in the mid 60′s today.  We will warm to the low 70′s by Tuesday and the high 70′s by Wednesday and Thursday.

The main area of concern through the work week will be rising fire danger.  Along with the drying air mas we will have rising temps and rising winds.  This will likely lead to at least fire weather watches over eastern NM.

As far as storms go there is not much to brag about until the weekend and even then it looks a lit shaky.  Here is a look at the 7-day precip outlook for the state.  The only area that could get decent rain or snow looks like the northern mountains.

SPC