Mark Ronchetti

Storm Killing Ridge Sets Up!

October 21st, 2014 at 10:37 pm by under Weather

A strong ridge of high-pressure will build over the Southwest in the next few days. That ridge will clear out any clouds and lead to mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures back into the high 70s. Through the weekend we should see warm temperatures and sunny skies continue with highs remaining in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Changes roll back into the forecast area by Monday.   A cold trough show signs of dropping toward New Mexico.  The exact track of the system is very much in doubt but there are signs that if he comes far enough south of the northern mountains could see some snow.  Below is a look at our storm killing ridge.

GFS

 


A Parade of Storms…

October 17th, 2014 at 9:50 pm by under Weather

Over the next 4 to 5 days we will have a high volume of storms coming in the New Mexico the question is what is the quality of the storms?  To be quite honest, it doesn’t look that great right now but overall by the time we’re finished with this pattern by say Thursday or Friday a wide area of the state could pick up light to moderate rain.

It all kicks off tonight with a weak storm system passing through spreading scattered showers. Then tomorrow with plenty of clouds around we are mainly looking at some isolated rain.

The second storm system comes in Sunday into Monday. This one will drop a little farther to the south so look for southern New Mexico to be the focus for the scattered storms. And then a third system could well come in by midweek.  This one has the potential to spread rain and high mountain snow across the north.

Below is a look at the 5 to 7 day precipitation. It’s not huge but it would be beneficial.

QPF


Clouds Close In…

October 16th, 2014 at 8:23 pm by under Weather

Clouds will increase across the state from west to east during the day tomorrow.  Not only will we see clouds increase but will also see a cold front punch and northeastern New Mexico knocking down temperatures and kicking up winds a bit. A week storm system will approach as well and that storm system could well touch off a few showers on Saturday.  I wouldn’t expect widespread rain but we could see scattered showers through the weekend and then things get far more interesting for the beginning of next week.

The storm track will move down into New Mexico Monday through Wednesday next week. Two separate storms will drop down into the state expanding the chance for rain Monday through the midweek time period. Below is a look at what the Canadian model thinks we will see you by midweek. As you can tell widespread rain a a real possibility.

GEM


Another Nice One Coming…

October 15th, 2014 at 9:31 pm by under Weather

A mix of high clouds and sunshine was the rule today across all of New Mexico with warm temps as well with highs topping out in the 70s. We’re looking at a similar setup for Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures back into the 70s and in some cases out east the 80s. As we head toward the weekend we will see a weak whether disturbance work its way into the state. The storm could touch off some scattered showers but overall lacks the punch necessary for big time and widespread rain.

More significant changes arrive next week as deeper troughs take aim on the state. A series of storms will carve out cold air and a chance for valley rain and mountain snow across the state. Below is a look at the next 7 to 10 days of projected accumulated precipitation. As you can see in pockets we could do pretty well for rain and mountain snow.

GFS


Quiet Weather For Now…

October 14th, 2014 at 9:59 pm by under Weather

High pressure over the Southwest will get squashed over the next couple of days. The result will be more of a west to east flow across New Mexico. This will lead to rising temperatures and partly sunny skies. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will rise up into the high 70s in most areas of the state after a cool morning start in the 30s and 40s.

Things get more interesting over the weekend as a weather disturbance rolls into the state from the Southwest. This will not be a particularly wet system and it will not bring a lot of rain or snow but we do have a chance at a few showers. As you can see from the model information below the best shot lies from northeast southwest in a scattered fashion on Sunday. More on this as we get closer.
GFS