Mark Ronchetti

It’s Go Time!

August 21st, 2014 at 5:26 pm by under Weather

We have a nice one two combination heading for New Mexico over the next 24 hours. Moisture sliding up from the south combined with a low-pressure system moving in from the west will spread showers across the state. The areas first hit will be across western sections of the state overnight tonight. Here in the metro early Friday morning we will get the chance of showers and that chance for scattered storms will continue into the afternoon.

Some areas could pick over A half inch of rain over the next day or so. Skies will clear quickly clear late on Friday. As drier air rolls in.  Here is a look at the overall rainfall projections.  the most impressive thing about this image is how much of the state could pick up measurable rain.  The numbers don’t look huge but anything helps.

The weekend looks largely dry with mostly sunny skies. The chance for storms will increase again but that won’t be until next week.
GFS


More Storms By Weeks End

August 20th, 2014 at 10:12 pm by under Weather

A bone dry day across the state today will lead to more storms by the end the work week. We have a nice combination of high pressure setting up to our east and a storm system coming in from the west. The set up will draw moisture up and into the state and as the low crosses New Mexico on Friday our chance for storms will go way up. The areas that will see most of the action will be across the west and north.  However, nowhere in the state can be counted out for getting storms.

After Friday we will dry out once again for the weekend. Only to see another round of storms fire up for Monday and Tuesday as moisture slides up from the south. Here’s a look at the rain we expect over the next 3 to 4 days.

NAM


Close But Not Quite

August 19th, 2014 at 9:21 pm by under Weather

We had a good crop of storms across the western portion of the state today. They showed some promise as they moved toward the metro area but really fizzled out just west of the city. On Wednesday our forecast changes a little bit over what we had on the forecast models yesterday. Now it looks like more dry air will be brought into western and central sections. Here in the metro we’re less likely to see a storm but the possibility of storms will be higher to our east.

Heading into late in the work week it looks like will be on and off with our storm crop. This is a far cry from what we were hoping for as moisture looked like to be more widespread. But instead scattered storms are more likely versus a big block of moisture were huge parts of the state get wet. Such is the monsoon flow.


More Storms Coming? Maybe…

August 18th, 2014 at 10:12 pm by under Weather

We are looking at an interesting week ahead as far as storms go. Models are a little bit at odds with how much rain we will receive. One thing is for sure, will be looking at a better storm crop by midweek than we’ve seen so far today to start the week. The western portion of the state will see most of the action through Wednesday. Then the chance of storms will begin to shift a bit to the east by Thursday into Friday.

Here in the Albuquerque metro area if there are a couple of bull’s-eye days to watch for its Wednesday and Thursday. That’s when it looks like the best moisture will be over the city and we will have a chance for scattered storms. Take a look at the map below. It shows how much one model projects we will receive across the state. And as you can tell as we usually see this time of year some areas get hit hard others get nothing.
NAM


Fewer Storms On The Way…

August 14th, 2014 at 10:45 pm by under Weather

High-pressure will shift back to our west over the next couple of days. This will reduce the overall moisture supply available for thunderstorms.

So instead of scattered or widespread storms we will end up with more isolated storms. The areas most likely to get wet are the southwest and northeast. While we can grab a spot storm in the metro it’s not likely were going to see anything too widespread.

Temps will top out in the low 90s over the next 4 to 5 days. This is pretty much average for this time year.