Mark Ronchetti

Hot Then We Get Wet!

July 25th, 2014 at 10:12 pm by under Weather

Get ready for one more really hot day before big time changes roll into New Mexico. Highs on Saturday will top out in the high 90s in the Albuquerque metro area and 100+ degrees across most of southern New Mexico. High pressure that’s helping to heat up New Mexico will head to the west on Sunday. That movement to the west will allow a lot of moisture pile into the state Sunday and all through next week.

In fact, a parade of backdoor cold fronts will keep deep moisture across most of New Mexico through next week. Some model show that we could pick up 5″+ of rain across the northern mountains and northeast portion of the state. Even here in the metro area the rain numbers should be impressive with over an inch possible over the next seven days.

No one day may deliver a huge rain amount but a series of five and six days with occasional rain accumulation could help us wrap up July with very good rain totals.
QPF


We Will Have To Wait For More Rain

July 24th, 2014 at 8:59 pm by under Weather

We are looking at a dry and warm forecast over the next couple of days but then there will be some major-league changes. Temperatures will top out tomorrow in the mid 90s with mostly sunny skies across most of the state. The best chance for showers if we see any will be across the Northwest plateau in southwestern Colorado. Saturday we will keep the dry weather going with highs in the high 90s here in the metro area and triple digit heat all across the south.

By late in the day Saturday and Sunday high-pressure will move out of the state and set up to our west. This will open the door for a series of cold fronts to recharge the atmosphere with moisture Sunday and Monday.

Beyond that more moisture should stream in and we should be looking at a pretty wet set up throughout most of next week. Just how wet? Well, long-term models over the next week show we could see 4+ inches of rain across the north. Check it out.

Long Range


Dry & Hot For Now…But…

July 23rd, 2014 at 10:14 pm by under Weather

High-pressure nudging back into the state resulted in far fewer thunderstorms across the area today. We did have one strong storm roll into Algodones and lead to some flooding. 1.06 inches of rain fell as the storm pushed through in the late afternoon hours. The results were flooded homes across the area north of Albuquerque.

There will be even fewer storms for New Mexico tomorrow. But that shot for any rain will be in the Northwest plateau in southwestern Colorado. Friday also looks like a pretty dry day before changes over the weekend.

Yet another backdoor cold front will move in late Saturday into Sunday. This will result in more storms late in the weekend and throughout next week. So although we’re going to be dry and warm over the next couple of days the next seven days actually look fairly wet. Below is the projected rainfall for the state for the next week.
Long Range


So So Storm Crop…

July 21st, 2014 at 9:55 pm by under Weather

High pressure sitting over the state has not allowed all that many storms to get fired up across New Mexico over the past few days. That will change a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday. The high will shift north over Colorado allowing more moisture to slide up from the south puling thunderstorms.  This will not create a huge crop of storms but it should lead to an increase in some storms.

However, that increase won’t last long. The high should drop back down over the state by Thursday reducing the number of overall storms. There is some hope over the weekend and into next week that a backdoor cold front will recharge the atmosphere with moisture. Below is a look at the 7 to 14 day outlook for precip across the state this does show some promise.
Long Range


More Heat Than Storms

July 18th, 2014 at 8:29 pm by under Weather

High-pressure setting up over New Mexico will keep storms at a minimum this weekend but will allow for temperatures to continue to warm.

Here in the Albuquerque area will top out in the mid to high 90s through the beginning of next week. In Southern New Mexico temperatures 100° or above will be common. As far as storms go most of those will be limited to the higher terrain.  Just enough moisture should sneak under the high to fuel storms over mountain areas but I wouldn’t expect a lot of storm activity in the valley.

Below is a look at the long range forecast as we head into winter. Even though it looks like El Niño will be a little weaker than we were hoping there is still a good opportunity for above average precip through the winter. Have a good weekend.
Long