Mark Ronchetti

Quiet For Now…

April 23rd, 2014 at 3:22 pm by under Weather

The winds came roaring in across the state right on schedule today.  Gusts have hit 50 mph across eastern NM with the metro area topping 35 mph.  Winds will slowly die down through the overnight hours.  We will get a one day break from the wind on Thursday with most areas topping out 10-20 mph.  Mostly sunny skies will prevail as well with highs in the 70′s.

Friday looks like it will get off to a mellow start with sunny skies and light winds but by the afternoon winds will ramp up in advance of our next powerful storm system entering the state.  Look for high to top our in the high 70′s.

The weekend will be dominated by very strong winds, sharply colder temps and showers.  The winds will easily top 50mph at a gust with temps as much as 20° cooler.  The shower possibilities will depend on the exact storm track which still needs to be nailed down.  The farther south the storm drops the more widespread the rain and mountain snow will be.  We should be able to fine tune who gets what tomorrow.


Wind On The Way…

April 22nd, 2014 at 9:32 pm by under Weather

A storm system will pass well to our north on Wednesday.  This will be one of the factors that will be lead to a significant up tick in wind speeds for most of New Mexico.  Winds will top out around 35 mph in the metro area and up to 50 mph in SW New Mexico.  Drier air will also flow in tomorrow leading to high fire danger all across the state.

By Thursday winds will die down and temps may well dip just a bit closer to seasonal averages.  All areas should enjoy mostly sunny skies.  Friday looks pretty good as well with lighter winds and mostly sunny skies.

The weekend definitely holds more intrigue.  Models differ on a storm headed our way.  The European model likes this system to drop into the state.  Should the track you see in this image pan out we could pick up not only wind but some rain too!

Euro


Changes Ahead…

April 11th, 2014 at 9:56 pm by under Weather

There has been a significant change in the forecast leading to more intrigue this weekend.  Yesterday’s model runs showed a one-two storm punch coming through this weekend.  The first and weaker system moves in Saturday with isolated showers.  The second system scrapes the NE with a cold front as well.  This system looked better than the first but hardly a big timer.

Now the models sing a bit of a different tune.  Storm #1 still looks week and will be mainly a wind maker on Saturday.  But Sunday’s storm (#2) drops farther into the state leading to a better chance of rain in the metro up through the NE.  The mountains will get a better shot at snow as well.

Look for winds to ramp up in the metro late Sunday as a cold front squeezes through the east mountains.  Then the low will kick through enhancing the chance of showers Sunday night into Monday.  Heavy snow will develop over the northern mountains especially the east slopes during this same time.  Snow will continue into Monday afternoon before tapering off.

One caveat for the metro will be the east winds.  They will crank up about the time the precip comes in.  An east wind precipitation shadow is possible.  Stay tuned.  Here is the latest model data on how much liquid we could get by Tuesday.

Euro


Warm With Less Wind…

April 10th, 2014 at 5:47 pm by under Weather

A weak weather disturbance will increase clouds across NM on Friday but no precipitation is expected.  While there will be plenty of high clouds temps will remain warm and winds will be light.  Overall, Friday will be a very nice day.  However, changes roll in on Saturday.  A weak storm currently over the Pacific will slide through the southwest.  It will touch off isolated showers and some high mountain snow showers.

By Sunday a strong cold front will plow NE to SW across the state.  Rain showers and snow will favor the NE and northern mtns during the day Sunday.  The front will squeeze through the Tijeras canyon into the Albuquerque metro area late Sunday.  East winds will crank up in a big way and temps will crated 20°+ by Monday.

On another note, the latest El Nino report is out from the CPC.  Here is a link to the report.  The take away is the likelihood of El Nino is increasing.  Not only that but if we do see an El Nino it is trending stronger.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

 


Warm For Now…

April 9th, 2014 at 10:05 pm by under Weather

Temps will continue to be well above average through the end of the work week.  The high today in the metro was 81° and we could well hit 80° again tomorrow.  The only area that will cool down and only slightly will be the NE as a weak front tries to nudge in.  Friday looks similar temp wise but we should see more clouds.

The action gets more interesting over the weekend.  A storm system will head in from the Pacific.  The track on this storm looks good and the northern part of the state will have a chance for rain and snow.  However, this system will be a little moisture starved so widespread precipitation is not likely.  The storm will have some help.  A cold front heading into the NE will enhance snow and rain chances.  Look for the east slopes of the northern mountains and NE to have the best chance to get wet or white.  Check out what the GFS model thinks will happen Sunday.

GFS