Mark Ronchetti

A Storm For The Weekend

October 31st, 2014 at 10:13 pm by under Weather

Big-time weather changes are on the way to New Mexico. A Ridge of high-pressure kept cloud cover and moisture out of the state over the past few days. That is all starting to change. The high has now moved east over Texas and the moisture door from the south has opened a bit. Some scattered showers are already developing across western New Mexico and more showers are on the way for Saturday.

With moisture streaming in a storm system from the Pacific will approach . This System is very much up in the air as far as the track that it will take.  In fact some model show it splitting into a few different pieces that will linger well into next week. While others cruise it across the state by Monday.  With this much uncertainty the bust potential is high, 60% is the number were going with right now. The main reason for this is just all the model disagreement. Below is a look at some of the moisture the North American Model expects us to get by Sunday.

NAM


Storm On The Way?

October 30th, 2014 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

The Halloween forecast for most of New Mexico looks pretty good. We should have partly cloudy skies on Friday evening with temperatures in most areas in the 50s and low 60s.

The big weather story the next few days will be a storm system approaching the Southwest. The storm will sit off the Pacific northwest coast through tomorrow and then eventually drop down toward New Mexico by late in the weekend. At this point the track of the system and its eventual strength is still very much up in the air. But, what we know so far is that it should at least bring the chance for some snow showers across the northern mountains and scattered rain showers to the valleys.

Below is a look at the storm as the Canadian model sees it. The small shows that storm dipping down to the south and affecting a good portion of northern New Mexico.
GEM


Perfect Weather Thursday

October 29th, 2014 at 9:23 pm by under Weather

A ridge of high-pressure will slide over the state on Thursday leaving the sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s which is about 10° above average for this time of year. By Friday that high will shift over into Texas. This will open the door for a little bit of moisture to creep into New Mexico. Most likely it will lead to some clouds more than any rain or snow.

Over the weekend intrigue grows a little bit. Temperatures will drop as more moisture seeps in meanwhile a storm approaches from the west. We will still see mainly partly cloudy skies with just a few scattered showers but what happens over the weekend could set the table for Monday. As a deeper trough approaches the state we could see snow break out Sunday night into Monday across the northern mountains. The resorts could pick up that first decent snow of the fall.


Ridge For Now…But What About The Weekend

October 28th, 2014 at 9:42 pm by under Weather

A ridge of high-pressure will continue to set up over the Southwest for the next 48 hours. The effect of this ridge will be to keep any cloud cover out of the state leaving sunny skies and temperatures warming a few degrees over the highs of the low 70s that we saw today. This will not be the kind of rich though that will skyrocket temperatures across the state.

Changes emerge for the weekend. The high will shift just to our Eastover Texas. This could allow for a little bit of moisture to creep up from the south. That combined with the storm systems were at Northwest could lead to a couple showers. Internally going to be a wet pattern but we could at least see more clouds over the weekend.  Below is a look relative humidity levels over the weekend.  It’s not earth shattering but some Gulf juice is possible.

GFS

 


Anthor Ridge?

October 27th, 2014 at 6:37 pm by under Weather

The big story over the next 24 hours weather wise will be a cool down across the state. As we speak cool air is flowing through northern New Mexico on its way down to the south. Here in the metro area we will top out on Tuesday with temperatures in the mid 60s. But the cool down will not be long-lasting.

A strong ridge of high-pressure will begin to build in by Wednesday and last through the remainder of the work week. This high will block all moisture to the north and allow for another warm-up. The difference in this weeks high-pressure is the fact that the warm-up will not be quite as significant.  We will top out with temperatures in the low 70s by Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend things could change with the storm system dropping down from the northwest. At this point though it doesn’t appear to bring significant moisture.  Below is a look at our ridge of high pressure.

GFS