Mark Ronchetti

Flooding In Our Future?

September 17th, 2014 at 6:03 pm by under Weather

We are in for a wild ride across most of New Mexico for the next 24 hours. The remnants of hurricane Odile are now entering the state. Heavy rain continues to fall across the southwest.  Many areas of Grant, Sierra and Hidalgo Counties have picked up 3 inches of rain already. Now the heaviest rain is working its way in. This is likely to lead to widespread flooding. Throughout the night and into tomorrow the chance for heavy rain shifts in the central sections of the state. The Albuquerque area will see a ramp-up in storms on Thursday lasting into Friday morning.

Flood prone areas like Martinez town could be at risk here in the Albuquerque area of flooding as well. A lot of the focus for the flooding will depend on the track of the storm. If the track leads close to the metro area which is very possible we need to be vigilant when flood warnings are issued.
QPF


More Rain Ahead…

September 16th, 2014 at 9:33 pm by under Weather

So far our very wet weather pattern is unfolding to plan. The southern portion of the state saw most of the rain today and that will be the case again on Wednesday. For I-40 southward widespread storms will soak the area and possibly lead to flooding. Here in the Albuquerque area a few storms will be a possibility but our chance really comes on Thursday.

The core of what was once hurricane Odile will continue to lift into the state on Thursday. This will lead to widespread rain and the possibility of flooding. Most model estimates have rain amounts 3+ inches of the Southwest and over an inch here in Albuquerque. By Friday Odile will be exiting the state favoring the east with some storms. Below is a look at the total rainfall estimate from the Canadian model. As you can tell the numbers are big.
GEM


Very Wet Days Ahead…

September 15th, 2014 at 9:45 pm by under Weather

It is with part excitement and part concern that we bring you this forecast Monday night. The remnants of hurricane Odile work their way into New Mexico over the next couple of days. This will lead to much needed rain over central and western New Mexico but it will also likely lead to some damage and flooding. Current model estimates for possible rainfall numbers sit at 3 to 5 inches across the southwest portion of the state.

Here in the Albuquerque metro area were likely to see significant especially on Thursday. But before we get there will get scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the remnants of this tropical system kicks through late in the workweek the chance for rain looks significant in all areas. But it this point western and central sections appear to be most under the gun. Take a look at the model estimates for precip through Friday.  Widespread areas of 3″ are very clear.  Stay tuned!
GFS


Warmer Weather Ahead…

September 12th, 2014 at 9:53 pm by under Weather

What an unbelievable weather day across New Mexico. Here in the Albuquerque area we had 45 mile per hour winds late this afternoon carrying and sharply cooler air. It definitely feels like fall in the city with temperatures plunging down in the low 50s tonight.

The biggest story however was across southeastern New Mexico. areas of Eddy and Lea Counties picked up 5+ inches of rain thanks to a strong cold front in deep southerly moisture.

The storms will back off across the state for tomorrow.  Southern  New Mexico will have plenty of cloud cover and some showers but nothing like what we saw today. Here in the metro area fair amount of clouds will be had as well but we shouldn’t see much in the way of storms. Take a look at the image below it’s Doppler estimates of rainfall across the south today. The numbers are staggering.
Doppler


Cooler Day Ahead…

September 11th, 2014 at 9:17 pm by under Weather

The big story over the next 24 hours will be a powerful cold front rolling into eastern New Mexico. That front starts to move in tonight and works its way from east to west during the day tomorrow. As is the case with most of these fronts the biggest impact will be along the eastern plains. However, we will see some impact here in the metro in the form of gusty winds and cooler temperatures.  We will drop 10° here in central sections. Across the east a 30° cooldown is likely.

As far as precipitation goes most of that will fall in eastern and southern sections of the state. If you’re looking for moisture in the metro it’s not gonna be all that easy to come by. We could see a spot storm or two but nothing too widespread. By Saturday temperatures begin to rebound with just a few showers across the south.

Take a look at the temperatures for tomorrow afternoon across the Northeast. We may have trouble getting out of the 40s.
Euro