It will be quiet once again today with dry and warm conditions across the state. High pressure will continue shifting across New Mexico through Saturday. This will limit storms to the higher terrain and heat up the state. Saturday will be our hottest afternoon with highs in Albuquerque reaching mid to upper 90s. Much of the south and east will meet or exceed the century mark.
During the day Sunday, the high shifts west out of the state, allowing for a back door cold front to enter the northeast. This push of moisture, combined with afternoon heating, will help kick off storms over the northeast and Northern Mountains Sunday afternoon. The front continues westward, an east canyon wind will develop in the metro.
Storms continue early next week as moisture gets recycled from Sunday’s front. Another stronger front will sweep across the state on Wednesday. This front will deliver deeper moisture and push all the way to the Continental Divide. This surge of moisture will juice the atmosphere enough to keep storms going through the end of next week.
It will be hot and dry Saturday before a front brings moisture in Sunday.
Most of the state continues to dry out today, with the exception of the Four Corners and Northern Mountains. The high that’s been sitting over Colorado the past couple of days will make it’s move into New Mexico. Flow around the high will allow for moisture to wrap around through Arizona and into the northern part of the state. The northwest and Northern Mountains will be favored for the most storms, with isolated storms elsewhere.
The drying trend continues through Friday and Saturday. Storms will still continue over areas like the higher terrain, but most locations will remain dry as temperatures heat up. Highs in Albuquerque will reach the mid 90s by Saturday. Across the south and east, triple digit heat is expected.
By Sunday, the high will shift back to the west. This will allow the door to open for fronts to enter the state. The first arrives late Saturday and could fire a couple of storms in the far northeastern corner of the state. The second moves in Sunday allowing for a much better round of storms northeast. As the front makes progress through the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas, a strong canyon wind is likely to develop Sunday night.
The high continues to sit west early next week allowing for regular round of moisture to keep storms going through the workweek.
High pressure over the state will limit storms through the next couple of days.
More storms are expected this afternoon and evening with the best chance being central and west. Areas along and west of the Continental Divide will have best shot at storm develop this afternoon. However, the central mountain chain will also see it’s fair share of storms as well. With high pressure sitting to the north, any storms that develop over the mountains will drift westward. In Albuquerque, watch storms over the Sandias to drift into the metro. In Santa Fe, keep your eye on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
As the high begins to shift south Thursday, the storm chances will shift to the northwest and Northern Mountains. The state continues to dry out during the day Friday. By the weekend, the high shifts back to the west, allowing the door to open for fronts to enter the northeast. The first front Friday night makes little progress across the northeast. A second front pushes farther into the state Saturday night. Another front pushes in Sunday night. With these reinforcing shots of moisture, storm development northeast, east central, and in the Northern Mountains will increase. Some moisture could push it’s way into Albuquerque and Santa Fe along with a gusty east wind.
With high pressure sitting to the north, storms firing over the mountains will drift east today.
Expect slightly better coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. The high that’s been limiting storm production the past several days will slide in Colorado. This will allow the moisture door to crack open from the south. The higher terrain will continue to be the favored areas for storm development. We continue to see some moisture find it’s way into the state Wednesday.
Thursday the high slides back into New Mexico. This will cut off our moisture tap, causing storm coverage to decrease. Storms that develop will do so from what little moisture that’s left over from the previous days. By Friday and the weekend only isolated storms will be possible, primarily over the higher terrain. With drier air in place, temperatures will warm up into the weekend as well.
The high shifts back into Arizona early next week. This will get us back into a pattern where back door cold fronts are able to enter the state. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, these cold fronts will charge the atmosphere with plenty of moisture to allow for scattered heavy rain. As we approach late July, still no sign of the traditional monsoon setup.
Better storm chances across the central mountain chain and east where there’s more moisture.
It’s going to be a difficult week for storms as high pressure dominates our weather. Despite the less than desirable setup, some moisture will still manage to sneak under the high. The best shot at storms today will be along the central mountain chain and across the northeast. A spot storm will be possible across the west and Rio Grande Valley.
High pressure shifts north into Colorado Tuesday, allowing for just a little more moisture across the state. This should lead to slightly better storm coverage across the state. However, only expect scattered storms at best. The high shifts back into the state Wednesday and limits storm activity through the weekend. Late in the weekend, it’s possible a cold front could bring another deeper round of moisture into the state.
With the dry conditions in place, expect afternoon highs to stay 5° – 10° above average through most of the week. As high pressure sets into the state for the latter half of the workweek, afternoon highs in the Albuquerque metro will reach the mid-90s, while the south and east continue to flirt with the century mark.
Afternoon highs for Monday will climb to near 100° south and east.