More storms are expected this afternoon and evening with the best chance being central and west. Areas along and west of the Continental Divide will have best shot at storm develop this afternoon. However, the central mountain chain will also see it’s fair share of storms as well. With high pressure sitting to the north, any storms that develop over the mountains will drift westward. In Albuquerque, watch storms over the Sandias to drift into the metro. In Santa Fe, keep your eye on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
As the high begins to shift south Thursday, the storm chances will shift to the northwest and Northern Mountains. The state continues to dry out during the day Friday. By the weekend, the high shifts back to the west, allowing the door to open for fronts to enter the northeast. The first front Friday night makes little progress across the northeast. A second front pushes farther into the state Saturday night. Another front pushes in Sunday night. With these reinforcing shots of moisture, storm development northeast, east central, and in the Northern Mountains will increase. Some moisture could push it’s way into Albuquerque and Santa Fe along with a gusty east wind.
With high pressure sitting to the north, storms firing over the mountains will drift east today.
Expect slightly better coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. The high that’s been limiting storm production the past several days will slide in Colorado. This will allow the moisture door to crack open from the south. The higher terrain will continue to be the favored areas for storm development. We continue to see some moisture find it’s way into the state Wednesday.
Thursday the high slides back into New Mexico. This will cut off our moisture tap, causing storm coverage to decrease. Storms that develop will do so from what little moisture that’s left over from the previous days. By Friday and the weekend only isolated storms will be possible, primarily over the higher terrain. With drier air in place, temperatures will warm up into the weekend as well.
The high shifts back into Arizona early next week. This will get us back into a pattern where back door cold fronts are able to enter the state. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, these cold fronts will charge the atmosphere with plenty of moisture to allow for scattered heavy rain. As we approach late July, still no sign of the traditional monsoon setup.
Better storm chances across the central mountain chain and east where there’s more moisture.
It’s going to be a difficult week for storms as high pressure dominates our weather. Despite the less than desirable setup, some moisture will still manage to sneak under the high. The best shot at storms today will be along the central mountain chain and across the northeast. A spot storm will be possible across the west and Rio Grande Valley.
High pressure shifts north into Colorado Tuesday, allowing for just a little more moisture across the state. This should lead to slightly better storm coverage across the state. However, only expect scattered storms at best. The high shifts back into the state Wednesday and limits storm activity through the weekend. Late in the weekend, it’s possible a cold front could bring another deeper round of moisture into the state.
With the dry conditions in place, expect afternoon highs to stay 5° – 10° above average through most of the week. As high pressure sets into the state for the latter half of the workweek, afternoon highs in the Albuquerque metro will reach the mid-90s, while the south and east continue to flirt with the century mark.
Afternoon highs for Monday will climb to near 100° south and east.
After seeing plenty of rainfall, the week will end rather quietly. As high pressure moves over the state today and into the weekend, storm coverage will not be as good. Some moisture will still manage to sneak under the high. However, storm coverage will be limited to primarily the high terrain, with isolated storms elsewhere.
The big story over the weekend and early next week will be the heat. Afternoon highs will be well above average. Afternoon highs from Farmington to Albuquerque will reach the mid 90s. Across much of the south and east highs will reach the upper 90s to near 100°. If you want relief from the heat, head to the Northern Mountains. Areas like Angel Fire and Red River will remain in the 70s through the weekend and early next week.
Drier air works into western New Mexico today and continues to work east this weekend.
Last night was a very active night across much of New Mexico, particularly in the Albuquerque metro. Parts of the city saw over an inch of rain, while the Sunport managed nearly an inch. Last night’s rainfall at the Sunport officially put Albuquerque above average for the month of July, with two weeks still to go. However, it’s going to become more difficult to get showers and storms going the next few days as drier air works in.
High pressure to the west will edge toward the state. As this happens, drier air will filter in from the northwest. Storm coverage will be down across the northwest and Rio Grande Valley. The best chances for showers will be across the east, where numerous storms are once again possible.
Friday, storm coverage across the east diminishes as well as high pressure settles in. Once over the state, temperatures will heat up dramatically. By Monday, afternoon highs will be 5° – 10° above average. Albuquerque will warm to the upper 90s, while the south and east climb to the century mark.
Rainfall for the month is already well above average and we still have two weeks left in July!