Today will be quieter across much of the state. High pressure sitting overhead will limit storm development to mainly the higher terrain. While a spot storm will be possible elsewhere, warm temperatures will be the bigger story. Highs will reach the low 90s in Albuquerque and the upper 90s across much of the east.
As the high drifts east on Tuesday, southerly moisture will return to the west. That moisture will continue to spread across the state through midweek as the high continues to move into Texas. In addition, there are two tropical systems sitting in the eastern Pacific. It’s possible additional moisture could be drawn up from these storms for the middle and latter part of the workweek.
Only spot storms are possible for the metro, with most of the action over the higher terrain today.
For most, the dry spell will continue through the weekend. However, a few afternoon storms will still fire for parts of the state Saturday and Sunday. Expect storms to initially form over the higher terrain, then slowly drift to areas just north and east of the mountains. Areas like I-25 between Santa Fe and Raton could see some of these storms roll off the mountains late in the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Early next week, the ridge of high pressure sitting over southeastern New Mexico will loosen its grip, allowing for a few more storms to creep into western New Mexico. Currently it appears the high will hold enough for a weather disturbance to drift through Arizona, delivering decent monsoon rains there. However, if the high can weaken enough and drift just a little east, we could see more of that moisture make it into the state for early next week.
Disturbance rides around high and just misses the state early to mid-week next week.
August will pick up where July left off with more showers and storms. Favored areas will again be the west and central portions of the state. Flash Flood Watches are up for these parts of the state due to the chance of heavy rain over the already saturated ground. The northeast could also see a few storms. An area of high pressure is sitting over the southeast, so expect only spotty storms there at best.
Saturday will be a similar day to Friday, with afternoon showers and storms developing central and west. Then Sunday, the action starts to shift more to the west, with slightly less storm coverage in central sections. Through Monday and Tuesday, shower and storm coverage will continue to diminish. By Wednesday, the best chance of storms will be mainly over the higher terrain.
Next Thursday, a weather disturbance from the north will help draw the southerly moisture plume back up across the state. This time eastern and central New Mexico will have moisture to work with to fire afternoon storms.
Flash Flood Watches have been posted for much of the state through tonight.
Today central and western New Mexico will be favored for showers and storms. A few storms will be possible across the east, but cooler temperatures and a worked over atmosphere will limit how much action is seen in this part of the state. Meanwhile, the focus shifts to central and western New Mexico where daytime heating and ample moisture will combine for more showers and storms.
Albuquerque currently sits at 3.41″ of rainfall for the month of July. If Albuquerque gets a heavy shower over the city (or more specifically the Sunport), we could eclipse 4.00″ of rainfall in a single month for the first time since July 1930. We were close last September when we hit 3.97″.
Regardless of how July ends, August will begin with more showers and storms across the state as we recycle moisture from our latest cold front. Those storms continue into the weekend. However, high pressure starts to move back over the state over the weekend as well. So, expect decreasing storm coverage with each passing day through early next week. The higher terrain will continue to be favored for storms. Our next round of moisture appears to edge into the northeast toward the middle of next week.
Albuquerque has received more than twice the average amount for the month of July.
The east saw widespread rainfall throughout much of the morning. More showers and storms are expected across the state this afternoon. Flash flood watches have been hoisted across much of the east and the Northern Mountains. More rain is expected across the east this afternoon with flash flooding likely with any heavier pockets of rain. Meanwhile, a weather disturbance will move across the central and west. Lift immediately under the disturbance will help kick off storms, but drier air will follow in its wake as it moves north.
Another cold front moves into the northeast Wednesday, recharging the moisture and providing lift for more storms. The front clears the central mountain chain Wednesday night, causing an east canyon wind, and will reach the Continental Divide Thursday. There will be better storm coverage central and west during the day Thursday due to the progress of the front.
The stormy weather pattern continues into the weekend as weather disturbances move across the state from the north. The first will move through late Friday into Saturday and the second late Sunday into Monday.
Flash Flood Watches are posted for the northeast, the target area for the heaviest rain today.